信用債年度策略報告涅槃重生，靜待轉機

1、目錄1.回顧2018年，信用債牛市一波三折........................................61.1信用債牛市一波三折，當前利差處于低位..............................61.2高等級好于低等級，近期資質有所下沉................................71.3一級市場凈融資回暖，但結構問題突出................................7

2、1.4信用環(huán)境整體偏負面，評級上調大幅減少..............................82.紓困政策陸續(xù)落地，信用風險有所緩釋......................................92.12018年信用風險頻發(fā)，民企成重災區(qū).................................92.2信用風險頻發(fā)背后的原因：融資收縮.................................112

3、.3為化解信用風險，已經出臺了哪些政策？.............................122.4外部融資環(huán)境好轉，民企信用風險緩解...............................132.4.1CRM緩解民企債融資難問題...................................132.4.2信貸若發(fā)力將有效彌補民企融資缺口............................152.5政策改善融資環(huán)

4、境，期待減稅釋放企業(yè)活力...........................172.6民企債擇優(yōu)配臵...................................................173.城投：風險短期降低，長期隱憂仍存.......................................183.1城投債務風險較前期有所緩釋.......................................18

5、3.2城投債市場回溫，表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于產業(yè)債...................................203.3短期投資樂觀，長期風險未除.......................................204.地產：融資尚未實質好轉，地產債風險難降.................................214.1地產行業(yè)融資緊張尚未好轉.....................................

6、....214.2地產債風險難降...................................................235.投資策略：涅槃重生，靜待轉機...........................................245.1牛市下半場，信用唱主角...........................................245.2違約風險趨降，風險偏好趨升...............

7、........................245.3反攻時機已至，沖鋒仍待觀察.......................................24圖32房地產集合信托平均發(fā)行利率（%）..................................23圖33主要金融機構房地產貸款余額增速情況................................23圖34房地產行業(yè)利差及超額利差情況（%）........